It Didn't Get Worse — It Just Came Back
by Anonymous · ⭐ 1 · 🍴 0
🎯 A hundred people sit the same test twice. A score is «skill + luck». Keep only the ten who did best in round one, look at round two, and the average drops sharply — yet nobody got worse. The ten who did worst go up instead. Both simply came back toward the «middle». Picking the top scorers does not pick skill alone; it also picks «whoever was lucky that day», and that luck does not follow them. 🎲 Second, the check. Turn «luck's share» down to zero and the two rounds become identical, and the drop is exactly zero. The more luck there is, the further it falls on its own — and skill was never touched. 📰 Third, the judgement. You praised someone after a brilliant day and they did worse; you scolded after an awful one and they improved. Did the praise ruin it? This app was made with code too · Remix it and change luck's share.
About this app
An interactive lesson on regression to the mean, showing why unusually high or low results often move closer to average on a second attempt. It models 100 people taking two tests, where each score combines skill and luck, and explains why selecting top performers can make their average fall without anyone getting worse. A final quiz examines the mistaken belief that praise caused a drop in performance or scolding caused an improvement.
Use cases
- Students learning statistics and probability
- Adults building critical-thinking skills
- Teachers explaining regression to the mean
- Anyone evaluating performance changes over time
Features
- Interactive selection of how many top or bottom performers to compare
- Visual comparison of first- and second-round averages
- Adjustable luck share from 0% upward
- Demonstration that zero luck eliminates regression
- Multiple-choice quiz about praise, scolding, and performance
- Three-tab educational format with reset and retry controls